MiLB: Top 300 Power Rankings 2015

Jason Martinez
9/18/15

Roster Resource’s MiLB Power Rankings are based on 2015 regular season performance with age and level being major factors in how each statistical category was weighted.

Here’s everything you need to know before proceeding …

*Each player was graded on a scale of 0-10 with “10” being the best possible outcome. Astros first baseman A.J. Reed (1.044 OPS, 34 HR, 30 2B, 86 BB between Double-A and High-A; age-22 season) and Twins starting pitcher Jose Berrios (2.87 ERA, 166.1 IP, 136 H, 38 BB, 175 K between Triple-A and Double-A; age-21 season) were the closest to reaching that “perfect” score.

*Click HERE to view the notable omissions with an explanation of why they didn’t make the cut.

*For those of us who do not have access to extensive scouting reports on most minor leaguers, all we have to go on are statistics and whatever we’ve heard from credible sources who are knowledgable on prospects through scouting or gathering information from scouts and front office personnel. These statistics don’t come close to telling the whole story when it comes to predicting future success, which is why I’ve added a few other important factors (age and level) to the equation. My rankings should give you a very good idea of which “Minor Leaguers You Should Know” heading into the offseason.

*In order to qualify, a player must have been under the age of 26 on 9/15/15. While it’s certainly possible for a 26+ year old minor leaguer to make an impact in the majors and possibly have a long and successful career, the odds of that player becoming anything more than a role player (back-of-rotation starting pitcher, middle reliever or bench player/occasional starter) are very low. Therefore, I have eliminated them from these rankings altogether. Some of the more notable players who would’ve been high on the list are Matt Duffy (Triple-A Astros), Matt Hague (Triple-A Blue Jays), Brock Stassi (Double-A Phillies), Colin Walsh (Double-A Athletics) and Jamie Romak (Triple-A Diamondbacks).

*The minimum number of at-bats or innings pitched in order to receive a score at any particular level is 12 and 9, respectively.

*The pre-season organizational rankings from Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are displayed, along with the mid-season overall rankings from MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus.

*Wondering why a particular player isn’t higher? I figured that, which is why I’ve included the number of at-bats or innings pitched at each level. If a player did not play a full season in the minors due to injury or because they played in the majors (points were not rewarded for major league performance or for reaching the majors), this could be the reason.

*I will be adding notes in the near future that will give you a better indication of why a player is ranked where they are ranked (i.e. player missed 2 months due to elbow injury) and will include a list of notable omissions with the reason they didn’t make the cut (i.e. poor performance, injury, etc.).

 




10 thoughts on “MiLB: Top 300 Power Rankings 2015

  1. dan

    I am a Dodger fan. Now seriously? 199 for Julio Urias? He is ranked by most in the top 10. Most mid season forums have him in the majors to start next year…at 19. While it would be easy to question Corey Seager at 4 it seems pointless as it seems he has made a slight mark of hitting in the .400’s in LA. You say you judge future chances, well future chances I take you serious again is very little.

    1. Jason Martinez Post author

      Also, the numbers in the right-hand columns are actual prospect rankings. This allows you to compare “prospect status” to actual performance in 2015. The top player, A.J. Reed, was not ranked in pre-season, which tells you how surprising his performance was. The numbers in the middle columns show IP or AB at each level. You can see that Urias’ IP are very low, which gives you an indication of why he’s not higher.

      1. dan

        Great, I see you must of deleted your rude comment in which you state I didn’t read your intro or understand it. Brilliant from a guy that only got one response. Newsflash, not the way to get more. Now with facts, you state this is an article about players we need to know going into next year, correct? You state that age is a big factor as you go into why the older you are less important of a role you likely will have in the one place that matters, the majors. Stop me if I seem to not understand since I am using your logic. Now under your logic one would assume that the closer they are to the majors and the younger they are the more likely they will have success examples such as King Felix, Harper and A-Rod. So for a player who is 19 in AAA who needs to keep innings down as a pitcher who has elective, not pitching issues, to be ranked so low since you even state that for those who don’t have access to advanced scouting reports would be going off of stats and credible sources. If that last sentence is even remotely true about credible sources then 99 is ridiculous. If someone writing on MILB can’t access stats on a AAA player that is ranked so high preseason and labeled a future staff ace, which even I can being a novice, then maybe you should find something else to write on.

        If you decided not to read my comments above as you so rudely accused me of, I sum it up for you, you stated age was a major fact and at 19. years and being at AAA (not AA) per LAD website and every website including LAD official website suggests that 2016 is when Urias will break into the majors. Oh you stat that IP is low for Urias? That is standard for a kid his age. What do you expect out of a kid 19 years old? Hitting 166 like your top pitcher on the list who is 2 years older and has less chance of having a major arm injury due to age and workload is unreasonable for an 18 year old. Like others with his talent like Carlos Martinez, he will likely be in the bullpen to start the year next year to keep his innings down.

        In my laymen’s opinion, if you want more people to read your column do send rude responses when there clearly is a valid question as to why you put the #4 overall prospect at #199 on your list of ‘who to watch for going into next season’. Lets be reasonable here, you didn’t put him in the 30’s you put him at 199. Every stock watch report or MILB report or every midseason report I read still has him in the top five even after taking six weeks off to have elective eye surgery to correct a cosmetic issue. You should change your explanation as it states age and level. To start with you have a score in which you don’t show how you got that score. Secondly it states that it is weighted on age and level yet Urias is the third youngest person on the list and is in AAA. There are I believe 13 players on your list under 20. Only one is higher that high A, Urias in AAA. Only half of those players are even in A+. I would suggest that before belittling your one and only commenter that you maybe redefine your “explanation” as labeling it as such, well doesn’t explain how you got to the overall score. Oh maybe you just forgot to put the formula of how to get that overall score. I mean seriously, your number one player, AJ Reed, spent 60% of his time killing the ball in single A. Yes lets give him the perfect score. Lets be honest, he is 22 at double AA for only two months of the year. While I am sure he is a stud that hardly is equal to batting against AAA pitching which is considered veteran pitching, guys who don’t just throw heat. Good luck with your rankings, especially since you have put guys on the list that next year won’t have rookie status anymore. I hope you don’t talk down to all your reads like you did me. Don’t worry I am a stats guy, your stats aren’t even accurate on your rankings. Interesting.

  2. josh

    Hi Jason, impressive list, has me scouring my deeper leagues for players I might have overlooked! One question, Jerad Eickhoff is not on the list, is it because he earned too many ML innings in 2015?

    1. Jason Martinez Post author

      Yes, that’s part of it. Only 101 IP in AAA versus many guys who had 140-150+ IP. He was near the top of my AAA Power Rankings most of the season. The formula I used is also intended to give more weight to players who were young for their league so a 25-year old with an ERA over 4.00 in AAA wasn’t necessarily going to score high unless his peripherals were outstanding. His were very good. Of course, we know his skills translated just fine to the majors in a small sample.

      The formula is still a work in progress but I’m hoping to have it perfected for the start of the season.

      1. James Pedigo

        I don’t know your formula. It is definitely different from most prospect lists so I’m intrigued. I love the simplicity of your site and finally a presentation of a team’s prospect list by position to really give you the ‘state of the outfield’ in any organization. Brilliant in it’s simplicity – and the colors! How I do love colorful things, like a child and a shiny object…or a 50 year old man-child with the attention span of a gnat, take your pick. You said you take in consideration age(and something else) But please explain the entire formula. I’m guessing you regard actual production over tools, correct?

        1. Jason Martinez Post author

          There is more weight towards each category in the formula depending on age (youngest is best) and level (highest is best). If a 26 year old has identical numbers to a 22 year old in AAA, the 22 yr old will be ranked much higher. If a 22 year old in AA has identical numbers to a 22 year old in HiA, the player in AA is ranked higher. It’s all factored into the equation. Not a perfect science, but it allows me to account for more than just on-field production.

  3. James Pedigo

    I did read what you wrote about your ‘formula’, but I still feel there are blanks to be filled in. I’m talking about the most recent 2016 list that just came out, of course, but I do see in the 2015 list you were pretty accurate.

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