GRONK

Fantasy Football: Start ‘Em Scrap ‘Em Week 3

Rob Heinemann
9/24/15

Welcome to Roster Resource’s weekly fantasy article based on the best and worst values we find on FanDuel and DraftKings. Remember, we are not making season-long recommendations. These suggestions on who to start and who to scrap help you win each Sunday and get paid on Monday in your DFS leagues or tournaments.

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady: FanDuel $8,700 – DraftKings $7,700

Brady is on a revenge tour against the entire NFL and he’s showing just how great of a quarterback he actually is. The future Hall of Famer has thrown for 754 yards and seven touchdowns without throwing an interception. Sure, Week 1 was against a sloppy Steelers defense, but Week 2 was against a Buffalo defense that just shut Andrew Luck down. The only concern is if the Pats get up too big, too early.

Matt Ryan: FanDuel $8,300 – DraftKings $7,100

The Falcons offense has looked good thus far and the combination of Ryan to Julio Jones has been outstanding. Atlanta is playing on the road but they’ll be in Dallas, so the elements won’t slow them down. The Dallas defense is actually keeping Ryan’s price down a bit despite it being quite clear that the Eagles stopped themselves as much as the Cowboys stopped them. Dallas has issues with defensive backs and Atlanta has receiving weapons. Do the math.

Marcus Mariota: FanDuel $7,300 – DraftKings $6,100

The Duckling got a dose of reality in Week 2 but if Cleveland can do anything well, it’s defending at home. The Indianapolis defensive back situation is looking bleak at best and Mariota should be fired up for his first career home opener. It was nice to see Mariota connect with Dorial Green-Beckham and the two could hook up again as a pair of rookies in their first game at home.

Stay away from
Drew Brees – Things just aren’t the same in that New Orleans offense. The Saints are on the road against a strong Carolina defense and Brees still costs a pretty penny.
Colin Kaepernick – Kaep produced well for his owners last week but that came against the Steelers secondary. This week he’s up against an elite Cardinals defense that knows the 49ers well.

Running Backs

Adrian Peterson: FanDuel $8,900 – DraftKings $7,500

We saw Peterson struggle and carry the ball 10 times for 31 yards in Week 1. Then we saw him carry the rock 29 times for 134 in Week 2. As if Peterson didn’t have enough motivation this year, the former Sooner fumbled the ball at the goalline last week and still hasn’t gotten into the endzone. The Chargers allowed 162 rushing yards to the Bengals last week. Peterson will be desperate to hit the endzone this week and could put up big yardage to go with it.

Chris Ivory: FanDuel $7,000 – DraftKings $5,000

Ivory is our top back in terms of value this week. The bruiser is priced well behind the elite backs this week but should give you a huge return. The Eagles have been awful this year and haven’t faced a team (Falcons, Cowboys) with a power back yet. The Jets defense could be looking for a shutout this week and that would mean a lot of run for Ivory in a low scoring game. It wouldn’t surprise us if Ivory finished as Week 3’s top back.

Duke Johnson: FanDuel $5,600 – DraftKings $3,400

The Browns were unsure if Duke would be ready to start the year but he was. One thing you can be sure of is that Cleveland wants Duke to succeed as the lead back. Josh McCown is back at the helm, and while that does nothing for Browns receivers, it should hold their backs and tight ends as the veteran quarterback will find checkdowns much more often than Johnny Manziel who takes off running. Johnson’s carries increased from Week 1 to Week 2 and that trend should continue. He’s a super cheap tournament play this week.

Stay away from
Le’Veon Bell – In some cases you want to be ahead of the game but in this case, where Bell will already cost you top dollar, the risk of a tough game in St. Louis isn’t worth the reward.
DeMarco Murray – If this one doesn’t come across as obvious, you may want to reconsider playing DFS. Murray has rushed for 11 yards through two games.

Wide Receivers

Julian Edelman: FanDuel $7,700 – DraftKings $7,000

Despite having 40 catches in his last four games, Edelman is priced as a second tier receiver this week. Brady is on fire and Edelman is his go-to receiver. There’s no doubt that Gronk is a bit of a touchdown hog but that doesn’t stop Edelman from giving you a return on your investment. Consider him a safe option for head-to-head or small format leagues.

Donte Moncrief: FanDuel $6,000 – DraftKings $4,800

The young Colts wideout caught seven passes last week for 122 yards and a touchdown against the Jets. That comes a week after catching six passes for 46 yards and a touchdown against the Bills. This week Moncrief is up against the Titans in a game that could be a shootout between Mariota and Luck. There’s no reason to predict a regression in performance this week.

Rueben Randle: FanDuel $5,400 – DraftKings $4,000

The Giants just cut Preston Parker, who had five drops over the last two weeks, and brought in a defensive lineman. The means Randle is not only the No. 2 receiver until Victor Cruz returns, it means he is one of the only receivers with actual game reps on the Giants this week. Having personally been burned by Randle before, this is a make or break game for the Big Blue wideout this week. Randle is a great option to save money in a tournament, where he’ll be owned by a very low percentage.

Stay away from
Calvin Johnson – This has nothing to do with Calvin. In fact, he would have been in our recommendations if not for Stafford’s rib issue. No reason to spend top dollar on a receiver who may end up playing with a backup quarterback.
Keenan Allen – Allen is a nightmare for fantasy owners. After 15 catches in Week 1, you get 2 catches in Week 2. Allen followed up an 11-catch game last year with 2 catches for 3 yards. He simply shouldn’t be trusted. Ever.

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski: FanDuel $8,400 – DraftKings $7,400

Gronk is on pace for a 32 touchdown season. It’s easy to make projections like that through two games but would it actually surprise you if Gronk caught two touchdowns a game? It’s hard to be surprised by something that happens with regularity, especially with a uber-motivated Tom Brady locked in on him. Consider him worth the money each week in head-to-head leagues if you can be thrifty in other spots.

Travis Kelce: FanDuel $6,400 – DraftKings $5,000

Kelce has been talked about as a “baby-Gronk” and his production backs that up. Kansas City has very little success throwing to wide receivers but seems to have zero problem getting the ball to Kelce. If Alex Smith is going to rely on Kelce as his No. 1 target, the big tight end should receive consideration as a starter in all formats until his price is driven up.

Tyler Eifert: FanDuel $5,900 – DraftKings $4,800

Eifert has developed into a true red zone target for Andy Dalton. AJ Green, Marvin Jones, Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard all demand attention from defenders, which usually leaves Eifert matched up one-on-one with a linebacker. Eifert will have a size and speed advantage against his defender on almost every snap. If Dalton begins to rely on him regularly, he could become an elite tight end.

Stay away from
Jason Witten – This guy is one of the tougher dudes in the NFL when it comes to playing through injury. If he is out there this week, we won’t be surprised, but we won’t be starting him either.
Martellus Bennett – Bennett has had much of his success as a safety valve for Jay Cutler. With Jay Cutler out and the Seahawks defense, and Kam Chancellor in, Bennett should be avoided this week.

Rob Heinemann is an avid sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since 1998. Heinemann, a New Yorker, has covered high school, college and professional sports since 2010. Follow @NFLRosters and @RobMSGV on Twitter and feel free to shoot your fantasy-related questions our way. Be sure to check back each week for information on who to start and who to scrap in your DFS leagues. 

 

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