Fantasy Football: Start ‘Em Scrap ‘Em Week 5

Rob Heinemann
10/8/15

Welcome to Roster Resource’s weekly fantasy article based on the best and worst values we find on FanDuel and DraftKings. Remember, we are not making season-long recommendations. These suggestions on who to start and who to scrap help you win each Sunday and get paid on Monday in your DFS leagues or tournaments.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan – FanDuel $8,300 – DraftKings $6,700

Ryan is home against a Washington secondary that has allowed 549 yards and five touchdowns through the air over the last two games. After a modest game of only four completions for 38 yards with Julio Jones, I’d expect them to make a point of getting back on track. Roddy White has also been demanding the ball more, which could increase Ryan’s output.

Eli Manning – FanDuel $7,700 – DraftKings $6,800

Eli has been a safe bet for 17-20 points per game, based on scoring, since week one. There’s still no Victor Cruz but Rueben Randle has begun to show signs of consistency and Dwayne Harris has been a useful addition in place of Preston Parker. Also, San Francisco’s defense has been nothing to write home about and will be traveling cross country for this one.

Jameis Winston – FanDuel $6,400 – DraftKings $5,100

Winston went up against a tough Panthers defense last week but still managed 287 yards and 2 touchdowns. Everyone saw the highlight interceptions but there is value in Jameis at his current price. It could be a sneaky play to roll Jameis out in a large format tournament, where he won’t be popular, at home against a weak Jacksonville pass defense.

Stay away from
Derek Carr – Carr has been a great value play over the first few weeks but he hasn’t faced a tough pass rush since, when he scored only 3.24 points. And Denver could have the best pass rush in the league.
Russell Wilson – It was Cincinnati that shut Carr down in week one and Russell playing at the Bengals this week. At his current high pricetag, Wilson just doesn’t offer the potential return on investment you’re looking for.

Running Backs

Le’Veon Bell – FanDuel $9,000 – DraftKings $8,500

In all honesty, Bell should probably cost a cool thousand more, and he nearly does in DraftKings, than every other running back at this point. There are only a few true three-down backs out there but no back seems to be as involved in his team’s offense as Bell. With Ben still sidelined, Vick will be checking down and relying on Bell, which is probably the best the for Pittsburgh anyway.

Justin Forsett – FanDuel $7,200 – DraftKings $5,800

Forsett had a breakout game last week and will likely draw flocks of attention in large tournaments but he is a great safety option this week in head-to-head or small leagues. His current price tag gives him a great chance to triple up his cost in points against a weak Browns run defense, which is all you’re really looking for in smaller formats.

Duke Johnson – FanDuel $5,900 – DraftKings $4,600

Johnson has 15 receptions this year and they’ve both come over the last two weeks with Josh McCown at the helm. Don’t expect Duke to separate you from the pack, as he too is likely to garner a lot of attention, but that doesn’t change the fact that his value is there.

Stay away from
Joseph Randle – Randle has been great but New England will look to stuff the Dallas run game and make Brandon Weeden beat them. Wouldn’t you?
Ronnie Hillman – Hillman’s undeniable big play ability has been clear since early in his college career. However, he’s not the type of every down back that can block for Peyton and get the hard yardage up the middle that Denver needs.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins – FanDuel $8,000 – DraftKings $7,200

There was a little dropoff for Hopkins when Ryan Mallett took over but he’s bounced back with 17 catches, 258 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks. (Yes, we know some of that came with Hoyer). Hopkins has better numbers than Odell Beckham Jr. but he’s still significantly cheaper. This could be the week Hopkins finishes as top dog amongst receivers.

Larry Fitzgerald – FanDuel $7,400 – DraftKings $6,800

The reemergence of Fitzgerald has been a great story and for a guy who has more touchdowns that Julio Jones (and every other receiver) and more yardage than AJ Green, Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson and Keenan Allen, he is worth the price. Detroit’s defense has been solid against opposing receivers but Fitzy is a great safety play this week.

Eddie Royal – FanDuel $5,500 – DraftKings $3,700

Royal could be the pick of the week in all formats this week. His price tag is very low, as it should be, but we saw the glimpse of his chemistry with Jay Cutler returning last week. Cutler targeted Royal ten times last week and without Alshon Jeffery, that pace could easily continue.

Stay away from
AJ Green – Green is simply against the Seahawks who are firing on all cylinders defensively right now. Despite the tough matchup, Green is still priced as a top five guy.
Calvin Johnson – Johnson is the singular target of each defense he faces and, like Green, he’s facing a tough one this week in Arizona. It wouldn’t shock us if he scored on the fast track at home, but it’s highly unlikely you get the return you’re looking for.

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski – FanDuel $8,400 – DraftKings $7,500

Gronk has had at least four catches and 94 yards in each game this year. Yes, four catches and 94 yards is his floor. If you throw in a single touchdown, you’ve gotten solid value. However, we like Gronk to exceed his floor in a national game against Dallas. There will be a lot of eyeballs on that game. I’d expect a two touchdown day from the big tight end.

Travis Kelce – FanDuel $6,500 – DraftKings $ 5,200

Kansas City has gone up against a handful of tough defenses so far this year and Kelce has still managed to put up above average numbers. Kelce has his shot at the Bears this week and the game is at Arrowhead. Look for Kelce to repeat his week one numbers. You can justifiably play him over Gronk to save the budget space.

Charles Clay – FanDuel $5,700 – DraftKings $4,100

You can thank Richie Incognito’s foolish chop block for Clay’s reasonable price tag. Clay has been a top flight tight end this year and saw a 40-yard touchdown called back on a bonehead penalty last week. Tyrod Taylor seems to be more comfortable with Clay than any other Bills pass catcher.

Stay away from
Jimmy Graham – Graham is priced above every tight end other than Gronk despite a lack of chemistry with Russell Wilson. Graham hasn’t hit 85 yards receiving once this year and has only broken 30 yards receiving in two of his four games.
Antonio Gates – Gates is just getting back on the field and despite his proven track record, he’s not the best play this week. Let’s see him prove it and let’s wait for the first game back buzz players to back off.

Rob Heinemann is an avid sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since 1998. Heinemann, a New Yorker, has covered high school, college and professional sports since 2010. Follow @NFLRosters and @RobMSGV on Twitter and feel free to shoot your fantasy-related questions our way. Be sure to check back each week for information on who to start and who to scrap in your DFS leagues. 

 

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